If you’ve filled up your car recently, you already know something has shifted. The numbers on the pump are climbing, the weekly shop feels heavier, and the conversations around the kitchen table are getting more serious. You’re not imagining it. Something big has happened on the other side of the world, and it’s flowing through to Aotearoa faster than most people expected.

What’s Happening Globally

In late February 2026, the United States and Israel launched military strikes against Iran (Al Jazeera, March 2026). Iran responded by closing the Strait of Hormuz on 4 March, a narrow waterway in the Persian Gulf through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply and 20% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) passes every day (IEA, March 2026). The International Energy Agency has called this the greatest global energy and food security challenge in history (IEA, March 2026).

The immediate effect was a spike in global oil prices. Brent crude, the international benchmark, jumped from around US$72 per barrel before the conflict to a peak of US$126, and is currently trading at around US$106-110 (Al Jazeera, 16 March 2026). Qatar, a major gas exporter, declared force majeure on LNG shipments after drone strikes hit its Ras Laffan terminal (Wikipedia, 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis). Shipping routes are being diverted around the Cape of Good Hope, adding up to 40 days to transit times (RNZ, 9 March 2026).

This is not just about oil. Fertiliser, aluminium, helium, and sulphur supplies are all disrupted (Al Jazeera supply chain report, 17 March 2026). The ripple effects are reaching into food production, manufacturing, and freight costs worldwide.

Why Aotearoa Is Feeling This

New Zealand does not produce enough refined fuel domestically. Our petrol and diesel come primarily from refineries in Singapore, South Korea, and Malaysia, all of which are heavily dependent on Middle Eastern crude oil (MFAT, 6 March 2026). When the price of crude rises, our fuel costs follow.

As of 19 March 2026, 91-octane petrol is averaging $3.13 per litre nationally, with diesel at $2.88 (NZ Herald, 19 March 2026). The AA has said that after the strike on Iran’s South Pars gas field, “all bets are off” for where prices go from here (RNZ, 18 March 2026). Westpac chief economist Kelly Eckhold has warned that petrol could reach $4 per litre in a worst-case scenario (1News, 17 March 2026).

The impact goes well beyond the petrol pump. Road freight charges have already risen more than 30% (RNZ, 9 March 2026). International shipping lines are adding war risk surcharges of up to 50% (RNZ, 9 March 2026). Air New Zealand has cut 5% of its flights and scrapped its earnings guidance (Bloomberg, 13 March 2026). Treasury’s worst-case forecast puts inflation at 3.7% for 2026 (interest.co.nz, 15 March 2026), and the economy grew just 0.2% in the final quarter of 2025, weaker than expected (Bloomberg, 18 March 2026).

New Zealand’s fertiliser imports are also exposed: 22% come from the Persian Gulf region (MFAT, March 2026). That means farming costs are likely to rise, flowing through to food prices in the months ahead. 

Why Māori and Pacific Whanau May Feel This Differently

Cost-of-living pressures do not land evenly. Māori and Pacific whānau often carry obligations that standard budgeting advice does not account for: koha for tangihanga and hui, church tithes and fa’alavelave contributions, remittances to family in the Pacific Islands, and the everyday reality of supporting extended whanau on limited incomes.

The numbers tell part of the story. In 2025, 64% of Pacific households experienced food insecurity, almost double the national average (NZ Food Network Hunger Monitor, PMN, 13 March 2026). Pacific unemployment sits at 12.3%, compared with 4.2% for European New Zealanders (Stats NZ). Pacific workers earn 19-25% less than European male workers (Still Minding the Gap report). Vision West, a community support provider in West Auckland, reports that food support demand from Pacific households is up 50% year on year (Vision West, March 2026).

For Māori businesses, contributing around 9% of New Zealand’s GDP from an asset base of $126 billion (Te Puni Kokiri, 2023), the pressure is showing in tourism, hospitality, construction, and retail (BDO Purongo Pakihi Māori 2025). Many operate on 12-week cash cycles, leaving little buffer when costs spike suddenly (BDO, 2025).

As Professor Jason Mika noted on Waatea News, “conflict on this scale has the potential to disrupt international energy markets, shipping routes and global trade flows, creating ripple effects that reach as far as Aotearoa” (Waatea News, 6 March 2026). The cost-of-living pressure is also social and emotional, stress, anxiety, and mental health strain across whanau (Radio Waatea, March 2026). The Salvation Army’s State of the Nation 2026 report confirms that child poverty and material hardship are rising, with tamariki Māori and Pacific children disproportionately affected (Salvation Army, 2026).

What to Watch in the Coming Weeks

The situation is still developing, and there are things we do not yet know. But three specific indicators will shape what happens next for households and communities in Aotearoa:

1. Fuel prices at the pump. If 91-octane moves past $3.50, the flow-on to food, freight, and services will accelerate. The AA and MTA publish regular updates.

2. The Reserve Bank’s next move. Markets are now pricing in potential interest rate rises (NZ Herald, 9 March 2026). If the RBNZ lifts the OCR, mortgage repayments and business borrowing costs will increase. Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr has warned of recession risk (RNZ, 19 March 2026).

3. Government support measures. Finance Minister Nicola Willis has signalled that the government is considering “timely, temporary and targeted” support for households (RNZ, March 2026). The shape and timing of that support will matter.

Three Practical Actions to Take Now

1. Review your household fuel and transport spending. Look at how much your whanau spends on petrol, diesel, and transport each week. Are there trips that can be combined or shared? Can tamariki be carpooled to school or kura? Even small changes add up when fuel is above $3 a litre. If your household runs multiple vehicles, consider whether one can be parked for now. This is not about going without, it’s about being deliberate with what you have.

2. Have a whānau money conversation. Collective decision-making is a strength of Māori and Pacific whānau. Use it. Sit down together and talk honestly about what’s coming in: wages, benefits, any expected koha or fa’alavelave obligations. Identify the non-negotiables and the areas where there is flexibility. This is kaitiakitanga in action, caring for your people and your resources together.

3. Connect with your local support networks now, not later. If your marae, church, community centre, or local foodbank offers support, find out what is available before you are in crisis. Many community organisations report that whānau come to them only after things have become urgent. Reaching out early is not a sign of weakness, it is smart planning. Check what your local council, iwi authority, or Pacific community trust has available.

Looking Ahead

Times like these are difficult. There is no point pretending otherwise. But Māori and Pacific communities have navigated disruption before, and the strengths that carried whānau through past challenges, collective action, intergenerational knowledge, deep community networks, and a willingness to look after one another, are exactly what’s needed now.

This is the first in a series of posts from JamesPratt.com looking at how the current global disruption is affecting whānau, businesses, and communities in Aotearoa, and what practical steps we can take together. Next week, we’ll look at what this means for small businesses and community organisations.

If this post was useful, share it with someone in your whānau or community who might need it. And if you’d like to talk about how your organisation can prepare, get in touch.

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